Tax Glossary
62 tax terms every prediction market trader should know — covering 17 countries.
Adjusted Cost Basis
The original cost of an asset plus fees or commissions. Used to calculate gain or loss when a position closes.
Abgeltungsteuer
GermanyGermany's flat 25% withholding tax on capital income, including interest, dividends, and capital gains from financial instruments.
Anlage KAP
GermanyThe German tax form (annex) for declaring capital income, including gains from financial instruments and investments.
Ansiotulo (Earned Income)
FinlandFinnish "earned income" category taxed at progressive rates up to ~44%. Prediction market gains may be classified here.
ATO Individual Tax Return
AustraliaThe annual Australian tax return filed with the ATO, where capital gains including prediction market profits must be reported.
Aktieindkomst
DenmarkDanish "share income" taxed at 27% (up to DKK 61,000) and 42% above. May apply if prediction markets are classified as financial instruments.
Box 3 (Netherlands)
NetherlandsDutch tax category for income from savings and investments, taxed on a deemed (fictitious) return rather than actual gains.
Bénéfice de Spéculation
LuxembourgLuxembourg tax on speculative gains from assets sold within 6 months of acquisition. Beyond 6 months, gains are typically tax-free.
Capital Gains
Profit from selling or settling an asset for more than your cost basis. Can be short-term or long-term.
Capital Losses
Losses from settling or selling a position for less than your cost basis. Can offset gains and up to $3,000 of other income per year.
CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
The U.S. federal agency that regulates futures markets. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, which affects which tax methods are available.
Cost Basis
The total amount paid to acquire a position, including purchase price and fees.
Capital Gains Inclusion Rate (Canada)
CanadaThe portion of Canadian capital gains that is taxable — 50% for the first $250,000, increasing to 66.67% above that threshold.
CGT Discount (Australia)
AustraliaAustralia's 50% capital gains tax discount for assets held over 12 months. Halves the taxable portion of long-held prediction market positions.
CGT Annual Exemption (Ireland)
IrelandIreland's €1,270 annual exemption from Capital Gains Tax. The first €1,270 of gains each year is tax-free.
Designated Contract Market (DCM)
A CFTC-regulated exchange authorized to list futures and options. Kalshi is a DCM.
Disposition
The event that closes a position — either a settlement or a sale. Triggers a taxable event.
Divers Inkomen (Speculative Income)
BelgiumBelgium's "miscellaneous income" category taxed at 33%, potentially applicable to speculative prediction market gains.
Event Contract
A binary contract that pays out based on whether a specific event occurs. Priced between $0 and $1.
Englobamento
PortugalPortugal's option to aggregate investment income with other income for progressive tax rates instead of the flat 28% rate.
ESTV
SwitzerlandThe Swiss Federal Tax Administration (Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung) — sets guidelines for professional trader classification.
FIFO (First In, First Out)
Cost basis method where shares bought first are assumed sold first. The IRS default method.
Filing Status
Your tax filing category (Single, Married Filing Jointly, etc.) that determines tax brackets and deductions.
Form 1099-B
IRS form issued by brokers reporting proceeds from sales. Kalshi issues 1099-B forms to traders.
Form 6781
IRS form for Section 1256 contracts. Reports gains with the 60/40 long-term/short-term split.
Form 8949
IRS form listing each individual asset sale with dates, proceeds, cost basis, and gain/loss.
Forfaitair Rendement
NetherlandsThe deemed (fictional) investment return that the Dutch government taxes under Box 3, regardless of actual gains or losses.
Gambling Income
Tax method where gross winnings are taxable and losses only deductible if you itemize. One of four methods for prediction markets.
Gross Winnings
Total proceeds from all winning positions before subtracting losses. Key for the gambling income method.
Gambling Tax Exemption (UK)
UKUK tax law exempts gambling winnings from income and capital gains tax. May apply to prediction market profits depending on classification.
Itemized Deductions
Individual deductions on Schedule A instead of the standard deduction. Required to deduct gambling losses.
Inkomst av Kapital
SwedenSwedish "income from capital" category taxed at a flat 30%. Covers capital gains, interest, and dividends.
Imposta Sostitutiva
ItalyItaly's 26% substitute tax on capital gains from financial instruments, applied in lieu of progressive income tax rates.
Position
A group of trades in the same market and direction. Closed by settlement or sale.
Prediction Market
A marketplace where participants trade contracts on the outcomes of future events, priced by probability.
Proceeds
The amount received when a position is closed. $1/share for winning bets, $0 for losing, or the sale price.
Professional Trader Status (Switzerland)
SwitzerlandSwiss classification that determines if trading profits are tax-free (private) or taxable as self-employment income (professional).
Schedule D
IRS form that summarizes capital gains and losses from Form 8949. Calculates net gain/loss and the $3,000 deduction.
Section 1256
Tax code provision giving regulated futures a 60% long-term / 40% short-term split regardless of holding period.
Settlement
When a prediction market resolves and pays out. YES pays $1 if event occurs, $0 if not.
Short-Term Capital Gains
Gains on assets held one year or less. Taxed at ordinary income rates (10%–37%).
Standard Deduction
A flat deduction amount ($14,600 single / $29,200 married in 2024) that reduces taxable income.
Sparerpauschbetrag
GermanyGermany's €1,000 annual tax-free allowance for investment income (€2,000 for married couples filing jointly).
Solidaritätszuschlag
GermanyGermany's 5.5% solidarity surcharge on income tax. Still applies to capital gains under Abgeltungsteuer.
Schedule 3 (Canada)
CanadaThe CRA tax form for reporting capital gains and losses in Canada, used to report prediction market dispositions.
Skjermingsfradrag
NorwayNorwegian "shielding deduction" that exempts a risk-free return on investments from taxation, reducing effective capital gains tax.
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