Forfaitair Rendement

Forfaitair rendement is the fictitious return that the Dutch tax system imputes on your Box 3 assets. Rather than taxing your actual capital gains, the Netherlands assumes you earned a fixed percentage return and taxes that assumed amount.

Why this matters for prediction market traders

You could lose €5,000 on prediction markets and still owe Box 3 tax, because the tax is based on an assumed positive return. Conversely, if you made €50,000 in profits, your tax might be lower than expected because the deemed return rate may be less than your actual return.

Current rates

For the 2025 tax year, deemed return rates are split by asset category:

• Bank savings: Based on published average interest rates
• Other investments: Higher fixed rate (historically 5.5–6.04%)

Prediction market positions fall under "other investments" and receive the higher deemed return rate.

Post-Kerstarrest reform

The Dutch Supreme Court ruled the previous flat deemed return system unconstitutional in 2021. A new system taxing actual returns is planned for 2027. The current transitional regime uses category-specific deemed returns as a compromise.

Practical impact for prediction market traders

The forfaitair rendement creates a counterintuitive situation. Consider two Dutch traders in the same tax year:

• Trader A: Earned €20,000 profit from prediction markets. Box 3 tax is based on the deemed return (~6%) on total assets — possibly less than what they'd pay on actual gains in other countries.
• Trader B: Lost €5,000 on prediction markets. Still pays the same Box 3 tax because the deemed return is positive regardless of actual performance.

This makes the Dutch system particularly harsh for losing traders and potentially favorable for very successful ones — the opposite of most tax systems worldwide.

Frequently asked questions

Will the new system (planned for 2027) change how prediction markets are taxed?

Yes. Once the Netherlands switches to taxing actual returns, prediction market gains would be taxed on real profits, similar to Germany's Abgeltungsteuer or Italy's imposta sostitutiva. Losses would actually reduce your tax bill. The exact rates and structure are still being debated in parliament.