Guide10 min
The Complete Guide to Prediction Market Taxes in 2025
Everything you need to know about filing taxes on Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood prediction markets.
February 1, 2025
Prediction Market Tax Blog
In-depth guides on how prediction market trades are taxed, which IRS forms you need, and strategies to minimize what you owe. Written by the predictiontaxes.com team.
Tax Methods
How the IRS treats prediction market income — capital gains, ordinary income, Section 1256, and gambling.
Platform Guides
Platform-specific tax guidance for Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and other prediction markets.
IRS Forms
Which forms you need (8949, Schedule D, 6781) and how to fill them out correctly.
Tax Planning
Strategies to minimize your prediction market tax bill legally.
Latest Articles
Why Prediction Market Taxes Are Complicated
The IRS has not issued specific guidance on how prediction market profits should be taxed. Unlike stocks or crypto, there's no clear-cut category for event contracts. This means traders and their CPAs must choose between multiple defensible approaches — each with different tax outcomes.
Adding to the complexity, different platforms have different regulatory statuses. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, Polymarket is unregulated and crypto-native, and Robinhood sits somewhere in between. The platform you trade on can affect which tax treatments are available to you.
Our blog covers these topics in depth — from the basics of how each tax method works to platform-specific guidance and strategies for minimizing your tax bill legally.
Ready to Calculate Your Taxes?
Import your trades, compare all 4 methods, and download IRS-ready forms.
Import Your Trades →